Somalia

When the government was overthrown in 1991, Somalia had the essential characteristics of a failed state: high poverty rates, an authoritarian regime, deep divisions within society, and extreme vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters. Everything was there. However, unlike many other failed states around the world, Somalia has suffered a complete state collapse. This is a different category of failure than countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. Somalia has been on a path of sustained state collapse since the collapse of the government. After the first year of the civil war and the fall of the Mohammad Siad Barre regime, several catastrophic events occurred that made the restoration of a centralized state even more difficult. The scale of the clan's ethnic cleansing in the first month polarized the country to the extent that it was extremely difficult to reverse it. And the destruction of the capital plunged the country into a completely new category of crisis.

Somalia's political crisis ended with recent US and Ethiopian intervention. A new cycle has begun in the Horn of Africa. Rather than making Somalia more secure, this intervention will lead to the militarization of opposing political and social groups within and outside Somalia in the coming months. This is the third time since September 11th that the US has promoted military involvement in an Islamic country. This time they have joined forces with a supposed Christian ally, which is a further insult in the eyes of Muslim public opinion. The decision to intervene in Somalia is the result of a double logic that has not yet been examined in detail by the international media. On the one hand, there is a global agenda based on the vision held by Washington, or at least some members of the administration, regarding the fight against terrorism and the hunt for al-Qaeda members. On the other side are the selfish interests of the Ethiopian regime, challenged from within, to maintain friendly relations with Eritrea's enemies and prevent the emergence of new forces in the south armed with Ethiopian weapons. Trying to. opposition group.

The congruence of these two motives provided the context for the intervention. The implications will be far-reaching, both regionally and internationally, and will change the Somalia issue, for better or for worse. This intervention is problematic on several levels. First, there are obvious implications for Somalia's political dynamics. Why is intervention in a crisis that has been going on since 1991 suddenly essential now? Add to this the regional implications. As with other interventions in foreign countries, Ethiopia has traditionally justified its actions with the need to protect itself from terrorists and belligerent invaders. What are we to make of these claims when a “dangerous” Islamic court loses the case in less than a week? Finally, a rumor that has been circulating since late December: American AC-130 Bombing of villages in far southern Somalia and the presence of special forces on the ground confirmed clear signs of American involvement.